Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Swine Flu and Life of Risk

Schools are closing, the World Health Organization is declaring a pandemic, news feeds brood over the coming millions of deaths in response to outbreaks of swine flu. Yet very few people are dying. At most, people suffer symptoms of the common flu. And life goes on. Seems like we're over reacting.

But still. . . .

How do we live hopefully in a world with unknown, even uncontrollable risks, or as the psalmist poetically puts it, "the terror of night, the arrow that flies by day, the pestilence that stalks in the darkness, the plague that destroys at midday?" Natural and human evil stalks, we know. But where will it strike?

How much risk can we avoid in one area without increasing risk in another? Of the 1/2 million kept out of school in TX because of the flu, how many faced greater risk of injury due to inadequate supervision during the day? How many parents had to pay extra for child care and will now skip a doctor visit to compensate?

What controls our perception of risks we face every day, blithely accepting the greater risks (driving) while vigilantly guarding against the lesser (flying)?

Good use of technology and public policy is surely part of the answer. Infection control in hospitals and schools and business isn't advanced science. Basic hygiene gets you a long way. Evacuation of storm surge zones saves lives in hurricanes. But when the uncertainty factor (in this case, virulence) cannot be calibrated into our statistical models, what do we do then? We make a reasoned guess and hope in (or rage against) governments, odds, fate, or whatever god we think might be there. In "I Am Legend" (movie version), technology failed and humanity was all but wiped out. But ultimately the God guided humanity's survival. In non-fiction, Paul felt so under a death sentence that he despaired of life. And he described a renewed hope in God who raises the dead (2 Cor 1).

Of course, it's one thing to talk about this and quite another to reduce cortisol levels in our blood (btw, if you bottle it, you'll make billions.)

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